**Summary**
The video opens with the host noting that Tesla’s stock is up roughly 4 % today, setting the stage for a broader market update. He first covers geopolitical and macro‑economic news: Iran‑state media reports explosions and gunfire near the Strait of Hormuz, with ongoing clashes between Iranian and U.S. forces; the acting labor secretary (Kevin Hasset) argues that the Fed’s rate‑cut cycle is over, citing market pricing that shows only a ~30 % chance of a single cut by year‑end and a higher probability of a hike. He adds that core inflation remains stable despite higher oil prices, and that a strong jobs report (non‑farm payrolls of 115 k, beating forecasts) and steady consumer‑sentiment data reduce near‑term rate‑cut expectations, though he warns that a weakening labor market would be undesirable.
Turning to equities, the host cites a Barclays note that the S&P 500 rally is limited without a reopening of the Hormuz Strait, and that semiconductor stocks appear stretched, with upside dependent on progress in the Iran situation and on liquidity, AI earnings, and FOMO. He warns that the semiconductor trade offers poor risk‑reward at current levels and suggests taking profits. Software is highlighted as a weak spot, especially after Cloudflare’s Q1 adjusted operating loss of $73.1 million (far worse than peers like Rubric), driving the stock down >20 % and dragging the broader software sector.
The host then promotes his trading community, advocating a concentrated‑portfolio approach (5‑10 high‑conviction stocks) over diversification or day‑trading, and shares his own holdings in cyclicals, tech, software, financials, and consumer discretionary, noting past 10× and 8× winners.
Finally, he returns to Tesla‑specific news: Tesla released a new “Frost Blue” (marine‑blue) paint option for the Model Y Performance and Model 3/Premium models in the U.S. for $1,000, adjusted the Canadian Model 3 rear‑wheel‑drive battery warranty to 8 years/160 k km (down from 192 k km), and the Danish Road Traffic Authority denied having criticized Tesla’s FSD, countering a Reuters report. Speculation about a possible SpaceX‑Tesla merger is mentioned as a potential catalyst for today’s rally. The host notes Tesla’s RSI has risen to ~69, suggesting further upside toward the $450‑$460 range if the Iran conflict eases, given Tesla’s ~20 % weighting in the consumer‑cyclicals basket that would benefit from lower oil, stronger consumer spending, and possible Fed rate cuts. He concludes by reminding viewers to like, subscribe, and check the link in the description for the trading community, and wishes them a good day.
1. Explosions were heard near Sir due to a firefight (reported this morning).
2. Sounds of gunfire have been heard near the Strait of Hormuz for about 2 hours.
3. Iran's Anor says clashes are ongoing between Iran and US ships near Hormuz.
4. The acting labor secretary says the Fed should reduce interest rates.
5. Kevin Hasset says he thinks we’ll see rate cuts this year because of Walsh.
6. Markets price no rate cuts; the highest probability of no cut by December 8, 2027 is 39.5 %.
7. There is an almost 29 % chance of one rate cut and an 18.1 % chance of one rate hike 18‑19 months from now.
8. There is a greater chance of a rate hike than a rate cut by the end of this year.
9. Iran condemns US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz.
10. Iran's foreign ministry says US forces attacked two Iranian oil tankers near Bandar Jask and the Strait of Hormuz, plus strikes on nearby coastal areas on May 7 and May 8, calling it a violation of the ceasefire.
11. Tran claims its armed forces responded forcefully, describing the retaliation as a heavy slap and saying the US failed to achieve its objectives.
12. A Goldman Sachs survey of 837 investors shows growing expectations that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will remain disrupted well into the second half of the year.
13. The US military says the US disables two additional ships, breaching the blockade in the Gulf of Oman.
14. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson says Iran is still weighing its answer to US proposals.
15. Iran says the US proposal to end the war is under review.
16. Marco Rubio said earlier today the US is expecting Iran's response on the peace deal today.
17. White House senior adviser Kevin Hasset says seeing growth is needed to get the deficit under control.
18. Kevin Hasset says there is no chance the administration would in any way do a debt default.
19. Kevin Hasset says they are studying options on the latest tariff ruling.
20. Core inflation has remained stable despite oil and jobs.
21. Core inflation has not gone up since this war began.
22. Last month non‑farm payrolls were 178,000, revised upwards to 185,000.
23. The forecast for today’s jobs report was between 62,000 and 95,000; the actual figure came in at 115,000.
24. Unemployment rate today came in at 4.3 %.
25. Average hourly earnings month‑over‑month came in at 0.2 % (forecast 0.3 %).
26. Average hourly earnings year‑over‑year came in at 3.6 % (below the 3.8 % expectation).
27. Participation rate came in at 61.8 % (lower than last month’s 61.9 % but better than the forecasted 61.7 %).
28. Average weekly hours came in at 34.3 (better than the expectation of 34.2).
29. Manufacturing payrolls declined 2,000.
30. Government payrolls declined 8,000.
31. Non‑farm payrolls private came in at 123,000.
32. The U6 unemployment rate jumped from 8 % to 8.2 % (expectation 8 %).
33. Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 48.2 (forecast 49.5).
34. Five‑year inflation expectations came in at 3.4 % (below the expected 3.5 %).
35. Consumer expectations came in at 48.5 (estimate 48.1).
36. Current conditions came in at 47.8 (expectation 52).
37. One‑year inflation expectations came in at 4.5 % (expectation 4.9 %).
38. Barclay says the S&P 500 rally is limited without the Hormuz Strait reopening.
39. Barclay says global equities are hitting record highs on hopes of a US‑Iran deal, but warns the rally lacks breadth and depends on key risks easing.
40. Barclay says semiconductor stocks are seen as stretched, limiting upside.
41. Further gains require progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and markets are also supported by liquidity, strong AI earnings and FOMO.
42. The bank notes the energy shock has so far been absorbed via inventory drawdowns but warns these buffers are fading and demand risk is rising.
43. Barlay says a peace deal could boost European stocks but its strategic preference remains the US, Japan and emerging markets.
44. Tesla has released a new frost‑blue color for the Model Y performance in the US.
45. Tesla has released a new marine‑blue color for the Model Y Premium and Model 3 Premium in the US for $1,000.
46. Tesla has changed the Model 3 premium rear‑wheel‑drive battery warranty in Canada to 8 years or 160,000 kilometers from 8 years or 192,000 km.
47. The Danish Road Traffic Authority issued a statement pushing back against a recent Reuters report that said they had expressed criticism of Tesla’s FSD; they say they have at no time expressed either positive or negative opinions about the approval of Tesla’s FSD supervised.
48. Tesla’s RSI is now at 69.5.
49. Tesla’s stock is moving higher today, up almost 4 %.
50. Tesla’s stock represents about 20 % of the weighting of consumer cyclicals.
51. Tesla beat across the board in its latest earnings report.